Written by Ion Saliu on January 10, 2003 (3 WE).
At least in gambling, anyway… I want to find a better expression, preferably in Latin. Like “Dubito ergo cogito…” or “Repetitia mater studiorum”…
I felt like jumping in. Cristiano's post might have already raised suspicion. His post was a surprise to me, too. We hadn't discussed anything to that extent.
Well, let me detail the presentation of Cristiano Lopes. First of all, the probability is high this is his real name. And these are his real intentions. Such traits are rare in Cyberland. I made him a gambling author. He created a nice utility: CoolRevGui. Exe. I urged him to write a distributable piece of software. The result is a really fine file viewer, file reverser, and file shuffler.
I had written DOS utilities to perform such tasks. But CoolRevGui offers the convenience of GUI, specifically choosing files via point-and-click. A sidebar here. Back in the 1980's WEB, Apple Computer introduced Macintosh. The tough guys of the computing world quickly came up with a joke. They said Mac was for yuppies. Yuppies could never use two hands in performing any task. Reason: they always have a glass of Bourbon in the left hand… Since I consider life a tough endeavor, I thought I might as well take the tough path on the computing Appalachian.
Now I'm on my way of making Cristiano a tough competitor. That is, my only competitor—I feel so all-alone, when many others get stoned (from Bob Dylan). I don't hide behind false modesty. I do not have a real competitor in gambling and theory of games. The fundamental truth is that we are far better off when we have competitors. Regardless of the headaches competitors bring about, competition is the only source of high quality adrenaline. Physiologically, creativity is impossible without intense flowing of adrenaline. (One can make a parallel with intense flow in procreation during wartimes.)
This week I had the first sign Cristiano was on his way to becoming my biggest competitor. We discussed briefly the Markov chains. I have written a few paragraphs on Markov chains in a couple of messages. If interested, use the native search engine of this web site. Cristiano had prior experience with the subject while a student in computer science. I advised him to use an algorithm in his textbooks to write a simple Markov chains program applied to lotto data files. The start is the most important thing. Every subsequent step is a piece of cake. We are stopped in the tracks by the toxic shame of failure at step 1.01. (I look sometimes at the very first incarnation of LotWon: November 1988 WEB. Compared to my current software, LotWon 1.01 would generate the feeling of embarrassment. To me, it generates a feeling of nostalgia; and a feeling of pride for having the courage to step on step one and see beyond step one.)
So, he sent to me a little program named 'Markov'. The program takes a lotto-6 data file, performs Markov chains correlating, and outputs a new data file. The output file tries to offer the highest-probability combinations in future lotto-6 drawings. Cristiano asked me to test the program. I did so with a really tough lotto-6 game: Pennsylvania lottery 6/69 game. I tried a few ranges of past draws to input to the application. One of the ranges yielded a result way above random expectation. I created an input file with 35 combinations. They represented draw #3 through draw #37. The program generated an output file of 20 combinations. The last line had only 4 numbers, so I deleted it. The 19-combination output file yielded 2 3-hit combinations within the next two draws. Those were line #1 and line #2 in the data file. They acted as 'future drawings'. That's a total of 38 combinations played. The probability of '3 of 6' in a 6/69 game is '1 in 151'. A total of 302 combinations are needed to get 2 '3 of 6' hits. The tiny Markov program was 7.95 times (302 / 38 = 795%) better than random expectation! That's a huge improvement by any standards. (You may note that '35' is approximately equal to N/2 in a 69-number game. Search for 'wonder grid' and 'CheckGrid632' for similarities in my software.)
Cristiano sent me various versions of the source code of CollRevGui. In C, but if I can see then I can read C. This time, however, he did not send me the source code. The Internet is flooded by source code for Markov chains programs! Most of them try to create meaningful text from previous pieces of text. Cristiano's program, however, is the first attempt to apply Markov chains correlating to loto games. It is also the first attempt to generate focused prediction of lotto combinations based on Markov chains. Other programming attempts I've seen are vague, at best.
“…you may however share it with someone in order to test it in different data sets.
Its usage is quite simple, you just type:
MARKOV < DrawsFile > OutputFile
For example: MARKOV < LOTTO-6.DAT > MARKOV-6.OUT
Separate all parameters by one blank space. Don't leave out the < and > signs. They signify input and output, respectively.
It's not very robust yet; a few bugs and errors may appear. At most it will generate 1000 combinations each time. You may need to delete the last line from the output file, because for some strange reason it get truncated and doesn't have the 6 numbers!
The program should work with any 6/?? lottory, the first lines are heavily biased to the top draws in the drawings file.
I made some tests and guess what, it consistently hits 4in6 and 3in6 for future draws based on real past drawings, on some tests I have even hit 5 in 6, didn't get past that.”
The Markov chains theory follows random paths. My theory as applied to the wonder grid takes the path indicated by the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). Insofar as pick lottery is concerned, FFG outruns Markov by several steps. Another poster here, Halaska the sports bettor, knows better what I am talking about.
The Fundamental Formula of Gambling is by far the most precise instrument in theory of games and gambling. FFG offers far more accurate (focused) results than Markov chains correlating.
I would hope Cristiano goes beyond step 1.01 of his 'Markov' program. A future program is recommended to be distributable, even if for testing only. He need not reveal the source code. The adrenaline will always write better source code. For me, at least…
Copyright © MMIII, Ion Saliu. All rights reserved worldwide.
PS
CoolRevGui was written for NT, an older platform. It works great with files under 32K. It may work fine with files over 32K, depending on the OS and its components. In my case, and other cases, it does not work properly with very large text files.
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