Blackjack card counting devised by Edward Thorp is footnote to gambling history

Blackjack card counting devised by Edward Thorp is a footnote to gambling history

By Ion Saliu, Gambling Mathematician At-Large

Posted by Ion Saliu on August 04, 2000.
In Reply to: Blackjack card counting system by Mathematics Professor Edward Thorp posted by Shirley Ann Jennings - SAJA '55 on August 03, 2000.
SAJA:
• (Sorry, but I still believe you are Chip in travesty! I also think you came up with a soap opera. SAJA is a married woman who wants her anonymity. She is afraid that her husband may turn violent if he finds out that she is the admirer of another man, Chip. Chip is also a friend of the family. They all attend Thorp’s card-counting seminaries and lose tons of money in Atlantic City.)
Card counting, as devised by Edward E. Thorp is a footnote to gambling history now. It offered a slight advantage in one-deck games, and especially towards the end of the deck. Ideally, a player could destroy the blackjack game IF knowing the composition of the deck AND the sequence of the remaining cards in the deck. The latter part is the REAL problem: Nobody will ever be able to know the SEQUENCE of the remaining cards in the deck. The count may be +5, but often the sequence is Low card, High card, Low, Low, High, High, Low, Low, High, etc. The dealer has the same probability to get the high cards. It is even more complicated when one considers that there are several blackjack players at the table.
The cards, Low and High, will be distributed randomly among them. What makes a particular player believe he/she would be the one to get the High cards? In one-deck games, and only playing head-to-head against the dealer, there is a slightly higher chance for the player to get a blackjack. The dealer also has an equally higher chance to get a blackjack. The difference is the player is paid 150% for a blackjack, while the dealer always gets 1 to 1 for a natural. Let’s say the player has a 2% higher probability to get a blackjack (for a positive count, including Aces). Under normal circumstances (count = 0, neutral), the probability of a blackjack is just under 5%. What is 2% of 5%? 0.02 x 0.05 = 0.001; that is, 0.1% better probability! That is, a 4.78% chance to get a blackjack, compared to 4.77%. Applying the fundamental formula of gambling to p=4.77% and p=4.78%, we get, approximately, the same median: 14.18 and 14.15 hands. On the average, there will be 14 - 15 hands between blackjacks, in neutral counts, as well as in positive counts. I do not want to enter into the mathematical details of card counting.

Suffice to say: The effect of card counting in blackjack is negligible these days. The danger is that most black jack players expect to really win if the count is positive. So, they increase the bet, and keep increasing the bet. The result can be a much faster pace to bankruptcy. Suppose, absurdly, it is true a card-counter has a 2% advantage at blackjack. Does it make sense to play blackjack? The card counter can still lose a lot of money. Wouldn’t it be wiser to invest the money in the stock market, or a savings account, or in CD? The investor gets at least 3%-4%, much better in most cases…
Finally, once and for all: The predominant report is Thorp was never a successful blackjack player. He was never successful using his card counting system at the blackjack table. The truth is that other famous card counters have failed to gain consistently money in the casino. The famous Ken Uston made money by suing a casino and having been rewarded a million dollars. He made also money by advertising for a casino. Towards the end of his life, he made money while working (with numbers, of course!) for oil billionaires of Kuwait. Other card-counting evangelists have made money not at the blackjack table, but by selling their systems or books.
Ion Saliu

• Set the record straight on Chip, his real name, illegal behavior, and Powerplay roulette, baccarat - June 2004.
Read who exactly Chip is in this legal document filed by Edward F. Stancik, Special Commissioner Of Investigation for the New York City School District, August 8, 2001: Frank Accardi, SCI Case #2001-0279.
If the legal document was archived to an unknown location, or deleted, read a saved copy in PDF: Legal Letter Regarding The Fraudulent Activity of Frank Accardi, a.k.a. Chip (requires Adobe Reader version 5 or later).

Blackjack: Software, Content, Resources, Systems, Basic Strategy And Card Counting.
See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of blackjack, baccarat, software, systems, and basic strategy.
Of major interest: Blackjack, Black Jack: Basic Strategy, Card Counting; Charts & Tables, Probability, Odds, Software.

Blackjack Split Pairs Strategy Table.
Color-coded chart to learn the best Split Pairs strategy. When you get your first two cards, look at this table first. The pairs occur the least in a blackjack game. If your hand is not a pair, move to the next chart: Double Down.

Blackjack Double Down Strategy Table.
Color-coded chart to learn the best Double Down strategy. After consulting the Split Pairs table, look next at this table. The Double Down situations occur more often than pairs at blackjack. If your hand is not a Double Down situation, move to the next chart: Hit or Stand.

Blackjack Hit Stand Strategy Table.
Color-coded chart to learn the best Hit or Stand strategy. After consulting the Double Down table, finally look at this table. The Hit or Stand decisions are by far the most frequent and important situations in blackjack.

Blackjack Basic Strategy Tables Split Double Down Hit.
All three color-coded charts in one file, in the best decision-making sequence: Split Pairs, to Double Down, to Hit or Stand.

Basic Strategy Chart for Multiple Deck Blackjack.
The traditional method of learning the Basic Strategy: all decisions in a table. The dealer up card is listed across (horizontally), while the player's first two cards are listed vertically in the leftmost column. For example, dealer's up card is 5. Player's first two cards: A+4; the right move: D (Double Down). It makes it somehow more difficult to learn the best decisions.

Remember to check the free software downloads site:

Free Blackjack Software.

Follow Ups:

The Casinos Show Their Ugly Faces When Intelligently Challenged Shirley Ann Jennings 13:43:33 8/04/2000.
Casinos pay troubled individuals to intimidate intelligent system authors Ion Saliu 14:31:24 8/04/2000.

Subject:

Comments:
: : Blackjack card counting devised by Edward Thorp is a footnote to gambling history now. Card counting, as devised by Edward E. Thorp is a footnote to gambling history now. It offered a slight advantage in one-deck games, and especially towards the end of the deck. Ideally, a player could destroy the blackjack game IF knowing the composition of the deck AND the sequence of the remaining cards in the deck. The latter part is the REAL problem: Nobody will ever be able to know the SEQUENCE of the remaining cards in the deck. The count may be +5, but often the sequence is Low card, High card, Low, Low, High, High, Low, Low, High, etc. The dealer has the same probability to get the high cards. It is even more complicated when one considers that there are several players at the table. The cards, Low and High, will be distributed randomly among them. The danger is that most blackjack players expect to really win if the count is positive. So, they increase the bet, and keep increasing the bet. The result can be a much faster pace to bankruptcy. Suppose, absurdly, it is true a card-counter has a 2% advantage at blackjack. Does it make sense to play blackjack? The card counter can still lose a lot of money. Wouldn’t it be wiser to invest the money in the stock market, or a savings account, or in CD? The investor gets at least 3%-4%, much better in most cases… Thorp was never a successful blackjack player. He was never successful using his card counting system at the blackjack table. The truth is that other famous card counters have failed to gain consistently money in the casino. The famous Ken Uston made money by suing a casino and having been rewarded a million dollars. He made also money by advertising for a casino. Other blackjack card-counting evangelists have made money not at the blackjack table, but by selling their systems or books. : Experimenting with the game of blackjack, Thorp discovered that when you remove certain cards from the deck, this alters the house advantage. He also found that a player could sometimes have the advantage over the house. For example, removing all the 5's from a deck puts the odds in the blackjack player's favour. These favourable situations are outnumbered by unfavourable ones, and so on average an unskilled player would lose more than he wins. But, Thorp discovered, if the player knows when he has the advantage, he can bet more than when the house has the advantage, and so win more money than he loses. Thorp constructed his highly successful ten-count system, with which he won many thousands of dollars from the casinos at blackjack. They retaliated with a series of countermeasures designed to thwart the Counters the disciples who read Thorp's bestselling Beat the Dealer and tried their own luck with his system. There are still some professional Counters around today, although the casinos are wise to the danger and bar any player they suspect is counting. Thorp constructed his highly successful ten-count system, with which he won many thousands of dollars from the casinos at blackjack. Why this aura of legend surrounding card counting at blackjack? Even more mystique is added when considering that Las Vegas is still barring card counters from playing blackjack. Says Carl Sifakis: "And what of the casinos today? Blackjack is a much bigger game today than it was before 'Beat the Dealer' appeared. More people than ever patronize the tables and casinos today make more money from the blackjack game than ever before. That's a significant bottom line." Roger Gros, senior editor of "Casino Player" magazine writes in his 1996 "Casino Gambling the Ultimate Play-To-Win Guide": "After all, casinos make most of the money they make at the table games via blackjack. It's great advertising when someone reports a big win at the blackjack tables. Players have been encouraged for many years to believe that blackjack can be beaten, and the casinos don't want to do anything to disrupt that message." (pg.30). In places where it is legal to ban skilled players from the blackjack action, the casinos commit downright robbery. From what I have read, the casinos show a strong bias towards barring a player when he/she is at a serious LOSS! I read once that a known card counter was losing some $14,000. Exactly at that point, the pitboss approached the counter and asked him to leave the blackjack game! Of course, the banned player is allowed to play blackjack again. The pitbosses pretend to have forgotten him/her, until another significant loss for the player. The player is thrown out again! If the known counter is winning, the rationale is that a swing in the fortune will follow. I read with great interest your opinions on Ken Uston and Thorp. I am a former professional blackjack card counter but I currently make my living at the baccarat tables (with great success). Some of what you say has some reality to it regarding Uston. But, for the most part your off base. He did work for the casino at the end of his life, but not for the reasons you imply. I witnessed Kenny play many, many times. He was simply the greatest. Whatever point you are making about John Scarne would seem to be moot since he has long been deceased and can't possibly know what anyone including Thorp has done since. Title of Ion Saliu's book: "Blackjack card counting devised by Edward Thorp is footnote to gambling history". Card counting, as devised by Edward E. Thorp is a footnote to gambling history now. It offered a slight advantage in one-deck games, one player against the dealer only, towards the end of card deck. Truths about Edward Thorp, gambling, blackjack, BJ, cards, counting, penetration, high, low, positive, negative, neutral, count, casino, deck, permutations, card counting, blackjack, single deck.

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