Sports Prognosis: Prognosticating Italian soccer, toto calcio, totocalcio, Serie A, 1X2.

Prognostication for the Italian soccer (Totocalcio), Serie A For January 7, 2001

By Ion Saliu, Prognosticator At-Large

Sports Prognosis: Pronostici Italian soccer, toto calcio, totocalcio, probabilita. risultati.

Author: Ion Saliu, January 06, 2001.


• Here is how I implemented the sports prognostication method described in a previous post ("Sports Prognosticating or Betting"). I used Excel for the task: one workbook consisting of 19 sheets. Each Italian football (soccer or calcio) team has its own spreadsheet, divided in record at home and record on the road. There is also a working spreadsheet, where the final calculations are done.

The prognostication outcomes: 1, X, 2 are percentages.

Prognostication for the Italian soccer, Serie A, for January 7, 2001 (giornata 13)

Home1	Visitor2  1       X       2    Goals1  Goals2 Progno

Atalanta Roma 33.33 25.00 41.67 1.08 1.33 X2
Bologna Brescia 58.33 25.00 16.67 1.50 1.00 1
Juventus Fiore 36.36 45.45 18.18 1.27 1.09 1X
Lazio Napoli 54.55 36.36 9.09 1.55 0.64 1
Lecce Verona 36.36 45.45 18.18 1.45 1.36 X
Milan Inter 50.00 33.33 16.67 1.83 1.00 1X2 *
Parma Reggina 83.34 8.33 8.33 2.25 0.67 1
Perugia Udinese 45.45 36.36 18.18 1.64 1.09 1X
Vicenza Bari 50.00 30.00 20.00 1.60 1.10 1

* Milan and Inter are from the same city: Milano. Both teams play at home. I selected 1X2 for that reason. In addition, Inter has shown clear unpredictability. I call it surprise-ability or surprisability. It is the main feature of the Italian teams. That's why the Italian calcio is so hard to predict. Some of the teams have a high level of surprisability. I keep also record of the surprise-ability factor.

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet.

Ion Saliu

Prognostication, pronostici: Totocalcio, toto calcio, 1X2, probability theory, risultati.

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