Written by Ion Saliu on December 13, 2003.
° BellCurveGenerator.EXE ° version 10.1, September 16, 2003 (3 WE)
The following report shows the distribution of random combinations based on their lexicographic indexes (indices sounds pretentious this time and age—beat pretense with pretense equals homeopathy). Every week, I have chosen randomly five games played in the National Football League of the United States. The football played in the U.S. would be more correctly named touchball, not to be confused with soccer or real football (played by foot). The games have a betting line: the favorite is expected to win by, at least, a number of points. I applied the strategy to five games. There are two outcomes in rapport to the betting line. Total possible combinations is therefore 25 = 32. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) demonstrates that in a majority of cases the winning combinations will be from the FFG median zone. The FFG median zone and the normal (Gauss) bell share a large percentage of elements, but the areas are not identical.
Only the first column of the report is of interest here. It represents the lexicographical index of the winning combination. If the combination failed to fall inside the FFG median bell, it is asterisked. The last column shows the winning teams of the five randomly selected games. The rest of the report is none of your business! (Consolation prize for those who have nothing else to hang on. My perceived arrogance is now the only resort of their resentment.)
Let's face the unknown now: Week 15, December 14, 2003. The schedule:
Cowboys, Redskins
December 15, 2003. The winning combination in week 15 was:
We do not know the results at the time of this writing. Nor do we know the results of Week 16. The combination #22 by one run of PermuteCombine.EXE is: 1 3 8 13 15
Falcons, Bucs
December 22, 2003. The winning combination in week 16 was:
How much did I win? You know me better. Would I have the heart to win big time and disappear? NOOOT! Besides, I really appreciate the concept of the rule of law. The legality of sports betting in the United States is tricky. The only legally well-defined betting games in the United States are the state-run lotteries and horse racing. The land-based casinos still remind of a mob business era. The casinos hate those who win against them and they, the kasino eksekutives, react similarly to mob dons. The updated dons might even say loudly in private settings ”Eliminate that son of a bitch!…” Legally, they may put you in jail for ten years if you carry inside a small computer (in Nevada or the Taliban Desert). Small or huge computers DO NOT alter the probability of any game. Rapists get just a few months in jail and are released immediately as a parole, or something. Nevertheless, they gravely alter human lives.
The lotteries have low probabilities alright. I have shown several times at this web site how software could beat not only the high odds (or low probability) but also the monstrous house edge (house advantage or player disadvantage). The mathematics should lead me to hands-down beating of the lottery via the sword named wonder grid.
In October of 2003 I had the most expensive drink in my life. It was beer, of all elixirs! It was soon after I had released BellCurveGenerator.EXE. I went to an off-track wagering parlor. My main goal was to play two combinations generated by BellCurveGenerator.EXE. Also, the combinations were no hits in the last 500 races or so. Both combinations contained either number 9 or number 10. I disregard races with fewer horses. I played some other strategies just to blend in, like a normal player. The first BellCurveGenerator.EXE combination on my list had already hit before I entered the off-track wagering facility. It wasn't much money—if under a thousand is not that much? The second trifecta had not been a winner for the past 20+ races. It was a good time to think of playing. The trifecta containing number 10 was ripe to hit within the next 3 races with 10 or more horses. I looked up the TV monitors and only one race met my restrictions. It was only one race. Usually the hits occur when several races meet the restrictions simultaneously. First, I decided I would play for double the minimum bet ($4). Then, I thought I'd better wait for the situation when more than one race would meet the restrictions simultaneously. I only had beer. Just one beer waiting for the future.
The FFG median bell trifecta hit that very next race. It was within next three alright! The trifecta yielded almost $5000 for $2. Granted, if I had played the payout would have been about $2,500 (in fact, more than that). In any event, that plastic glass full of beer has been the most expensive drink in my whole life. It's not too bad, if you think about it cold-headedly. I've read of idiots who paid over a million dollars for a bottle of wine! Now, that's stupid, because they don't even drink the content!
It is a fact of life that FearSurvival overrules conscious decisions. In truth, it is the foundation of life. Some of our conscious decisions are overridden by something inside we don't fully understand. But I know it has to be for higher causes. I wonder now and I would like to ask many people the same question. Would you like to enjoy a greatly enjoyable physical life OR be remembered with appreciation after life? Why should an enjoyable life be an impediment to quality of what remains after life? A solidly scientifically founded survey of humans around the globe would be of utmost importance. For Almighty Number crunches data and drinks surveys.
~ Percentage of 25 combinations within the FFG median bell: 38%
* represents a no-hit
--- END of 2003 - FFG median bell lines HITS: 12 of 17 weeks (71%)
12 SEAHAWKS, CHIEFS, BROWNS, TEXANS, LIONS
3* FALCONS, PATRIOTS, SAINTS, SEAHAWKS, BRONCOS
16 COWBOYS, CHIEFS, BUCS, BEARS, CARDINALS (updated 12/15/03)
20 JAGUARS,COLTS,CHARGERS,VIKINGS,49ERS
4* DOLPHINS, BENGALS, EAGLES, SEAHAWKS, CHARGERS
12 LIONS, TEXANS, STEELERS, PACKERS, DOLPHINS
16 0 1 1 16 16 TEXANS, EAGLES, COLTS, BRONCOS, RAIDERS
27* 0 0(32x) 1(32x) 2(28x) 19(28x) LIONS, CHIEFS, JETS, RAMS, EAGLES
15 0 0(32x) 0(32x) 5(32x) 200(28x) COLTS, RAVENS, COWBOYS, CARDINALS, PATRIOTS
17 0 0(32x) 0(32x) 4(18x) 125(10x) BEARS, GIANTS, RAMS, TITANS, DOLPHINS
19 0 0(32x) 0(32x) 30(4x) 108(22x) BENGALS, SAINTS, TITANS, BILLS, JETS
22 0 0(8x) 8(8x) 35(3x) 45(21x) SAINTS, RAIDERS, COWBOYS, 49ERS, RAMS
13 0 0(32x) 2(22x) 8(28x) 37(25x) SAINTS, PACKERS, JAGUARS, BROWNS, COLTS
17 0 1(8x) 1(24x) 4(26x) 25(31x) PANTHERS, BENGALS, TITANS, LIONS, PACKERS
9* 0 0(32x) 0(32x) 0(32x) 33(26x) VIKINGS, PATRIOTS, CHIEFS, RAMS, 49ERS
25* 0 0(32x) 2(24x) 2(32x) 127(3x) VIKINGS, CHIEFS, PANTHERS, BENGALS, PATRIOTS
22 0 1(16x) 4(8x) 9(24x) 86(13x) LIONS, COLTS, CHIEFS, FALCONS, 49ERS
--- Part of 2001 to end of 2002 - FFG median bell lines: 15 winners of 24 (63%)
11 0 0(32x) 0(24x) 2(24x) 2(32x) COWBOYS,BROWNS,PANTHERS,JETS,BUCS
7* 0 0(32x) 0(22x) 11(7x) 34(24x) PANTHERS,GIANTS,JAGUARS,SEAHAWKS,BROWNS
11 0 1(24x) 1(32x) 1(32x) 1(32x) JAGUARS,BILLS,SEAHAWKS,EAGLES,PACKERS
17 0 1(8x) 1(24x) 11(5x) 197(13x) BUCS,BROWNS,TEXANS,GIANTS,SAINTS
24* 0 0(32x) 2(16x) 2(32) 28(15x) COWBOYS,RAVENS,PACKERS,JAGUARS,SAINTS
16 0 0(16) 2(28) 2(32) 2(32x) BENGALS,BUCS,COWBOYS,PATRIOTS,REDSKINS
15 0 0(16) 3(13) 3((26) 43(23x) FALCONS,EAGLES,CHARGERS,BUCS,JETS
14 0 0(32x) 2(8x) 26(1x) 60(13x) FALCONS,RAVENS,JAGUARS,CHIEFS,BEARS
6* 0 1(16x) 6(11x) 17(11x) 75(14x) COWBOYS,TITANS,BEARS,JETS,GIANTS
3* 0 1(32x) 7 (6x) 12(11x) 188(20x) LIONS,TITANS,49ERS,PATRIOTS,TEXANS
24* 0 0 0 6 42 CHIEFS,BILLS,EAGLES,RAMS,PACKERS
17 0 0 0 0 5 RAVENS,RAMS,49ERS,DOLPHINS,PACKERS
8* 0 0 0 15 22 DOLPHINS,RAVENS,VIKINGS,PATRIOTS,PANTHERS
20 0 1 1 1 43 LIONS,COWBOYS,JAGUARS,DOLPHINS,STEELERS
29* 0 0 0 25 163 SAINTS,JETS,EAGLES,PANTHERS,BILLS
18 0 0 0 2 34 DOLPHINS,PATRIOTS,RAMS,FALCONS,LIONS
12 0 0 3 16 19 TITANS,RAVENS,DOLPHINS,COWBOYS,PATRIOTS
11 0 2 4 4 29 COLTS,JAGUARS,BUCS,BENGALS,BEARS
24* 0 0 1 2 31 PATRIOTS,RAMS,FALCONS,BROWNS,REDSKINS
26* 0 0 2 5 141 PACKERS,BUCS,BEARS,BENGALS,LIONS
16 0 0 3 8 122 RAVENS,REDSKINS,BROWNS,CARDINALS,BEARS
18 0 2 2 14 53 VIKINGS,CHIEFS,RAMS,PACKERS,PATRIOTS
19 0 0 0 0 86 BILLS,DOLPHINS,JAGUARS,BENGALS,FALCONS
14 0 0 0 1 2 COLTS,RAIDERS,PANTHERS,PACKERS,SAINTS
I get the NFL schedule from the official site of the National Football League (ww.nfl.com—official is good sometimes). The bookies use different ordering of the games. For example, at the beginning of the 2003 NFL season, the week 14 was listed this way (or the way I saw it):
-----------------------------------------------
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 7 4 5 7 8 11
-----------------------------------------------
1) Bears at Packers, 1:00 pm 21-34
2) Bengals at Ravens, 1:00 pm 13-31
3) Cowboys at Eagles, 1:00 pm 10-36
4) Texans at Jaguars, 1:00 pm 0-27
5) Colts at Titans, 1:00 pm 29-27
6) Raiders at Steelers, 1:00 pm 7-27
7) Chargers at Lions, 1:00 pm 14-7
8) Seahawks at Vikings, 1:00 pm 7-34
9) Bucs at Saints, 1:00 pm 14-7
10) Redskins at Giants, 1:00 pm 20-7
11) Cardinals at 49ers, 4:05 pm 14-50
12) Chiefs at Broncos, 4:15 pm 21-45
13) Dolphins at Patriots, 4:15 pm 0-12
14) Jets at Bills, 4:15 pm 7-16
15) Panthers at Falcons, 8:30 pm 14-20
16) Rams at Browns, 9:00 pm (Dec. 8) 26-20
I ran PermuteCombine.EXE, the 'Combinations' option for 15 numbers, 5 numbers per combination. Total combinations to generate: 22 (the median calculated by the Fundamental Formula of Gambling for a probability equal to 1/32). The combination #22 for that particular run was:
4 5 7 8 11.
You can see what games they represented in that week's schedule. The winning combination was:
JAGUARS, COLTS, CHARGERS, VIKINGS, 49ERS
or lexicographical index 20.
-----------------------------------------------
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14 3 4 5 7 13
-----------------------------------------------
1) Falcons at Colts, 1:00 pm
2) Bills at Titans, 1:00 pm
3) Cowboys at Redskins, 1:00 pm
4) Lions at Chiefs, 1:00 pm
5) Texans at Bucs, 1:00 pm
6) Jaguars at Patriots, 1:00 pm
7) Vikings at Bears, 1:00 pm
8) Steelers at Jets, 1:00 pm
9) Seahawks at Rams, 1:00 pm
10) 49ers at Bengals, 1:00 pm
11) Ravens at Raiders, 4:05 pm
12) Browns at Broncos, 4:05 pm
13) Panthers at Cardinals, 4:15 pm
14) Packers at Chargers, 4:15 pm
15) Giants at Saints, 8:30 pm
16) Eagles at Dolphins, 9:00 pm (Dec. 15)
The combination #22 by one run of PermuteCombine.EXE was: 3 4 5 7 13
The games was written to a text file GAMES.5 with the following content:
Lions, Chiefs
Texans, Bucs
Vikings, Bears
Panthers, Cardinals
COWBOYS, CHIEFS, BUCS, BEARS, CARDINALS
or lexicographical index 16 (right in the middle!)
The Arizona Cardinals lost the game by 3 points. The Panthers, however, were expected to win by 6 points. If the straight up winners had been considered (Panthers instead of Cardinals), the winning combination would have had index #15.
The schedule for week 16 is:
-----------------------------------------------
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21
-----------------------------------------------
1) Falcons at Bucs, 1:30 pm (Dec. 20)
2) Chiefs at Vikings, 5:00 pm (Dec. 20)
3) Patriots at Jets, 8:30 pm (Dec. 20)
4) Ravens at Browns, 1:00 pm
5) Bengals at Rams, 1:00 pm
6) Lions at Panthers, 1:00 pm
7) Dolphins at Bills, 1:00 pm
8) Saints at Jaguars, 1:00 pm
9) Giants at Cowboys, 1:00 pm
10) Titans at Texans, 1:00 pm
11) Redskins at Bears, 1:00 pm
12) Chargers at Steelers, 4:05 pm
13) Cardinals at Seahawks, 4:15 pm
14) 49ers at Eagles, 4:15 pm
15) Broncos at Colts, 8:30 pm
16) Packers at Raiders, 9:00 pm (Dec. 22)
The games would be written to a text file GAMES.5 with the following content:
Patriots, Jets
Saints, Jaguars
Cardinals, Seahawks
Broncos, Colts
FALCONS, PATRIOTS, SAINTS, SEAHAWKS, BRONCOS
or lexicographical index 3 (no hit).
I combined the concepts of LotWon lottery filtering and combinations from the FFG median bell. Generate first a large amount of combinations running BellCurveGenerator.EXE. The output file will be purged using LotWon32 and/or MDIEditor and Lotto WE. Look for tight filters, if possible minimum=N and maximum=N+1. I did that as a fun game using the UK 6/49 lotto game. The game has fairly manageable odds (probability, mathematically correctly). The game has also a mathematically significant history (amount of data). I can only say hoc et nunc that in at least five cases the jackpot was to be had with 0, or 1, or 2, or up to 10 combinations. The database consisted of some 750 draws. Some of the hits would have shared the jackpot with other winners (real winners). It is possible to spend less than 10,000 for more than 5 million in non-taxable revenue! For Uncle Sam imposes taxes, but AUnt Samantha doesn't! But would I flee again? NOOOT! I had enough already of being a refugee once...
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