A gamblers' fallacy: The doctrine of the maturity of chances



Posted by Chip on July 22, 2000.

In Reply to: Re: Put Your $ Where Your Mouth Is ION! posted by Ion Saliu on July 22, 2000.

:
: Chip:
: • You are behind again! Like your system in a race against mine!
:
: I already know a guy nick-named “Wizard of Odds”. His nickname is valid only insofar as related to mysticism. I think his correct nickname should be “Lizard of Odds”: His odds-related knowledge belongs to the dinosaurs’ era! He visited my website in 1998 WEB. He was so impressed that he included my site in his “Hot Links”, or something like that. There were a number of referrers coming from his “Hot List”. Nice guy that I am, I wanted to show my gratitude. I sent Mike Shakelford (your spelling, sorry!), as a gift, some of my lottery software not released to the public. As an immediate consequence, “Lizard of Odds” removed my website listing from his “Recommended Sites”. He claimed he so decided because he didn’t agree with my Fundamental Formula of Gambling! (He had seen it before he recommended my site; actually, he had recommended my site because of FFG!). I believe my lottery software caused his decision. First, it was strong proof against his theory that you can never win at gambling, lottery most notably. Second, he probably didn’t want more other people get their hands on my software.

: As of “Lizard of Odds” “theory”, just one fact will be more than relevant. The “Wizard of Odds” adamantly sustains that “getting 200 heads in a row is equal to getting one (1) head in a row”! That’s it and that’s that! I asked him to provide me with a real-life sample of 200 heads in a row. Embarrassed and angry, he replied with something like “maybe 20 heads in a row is MORE EQUAL to 1 head in a row”…

: Speaking of amateurs. Let me come back to the “race” between my system and yours, a race you are so afraid of. Suppose your $5,000 system represents a Ferrari car. My roulette system would represent an ordinary car 100 times cheaper. You know, I, the amateur, would not hesitate to drive a Ferrari in a race against a 100-times-cheaper car driven by the Formula-1 champion!

: Best of luck!

: Ion Saliu

: ---------------------

: Here is a challenge for you sir! Let's see if you can put your money where your mouth is and keep your followers, who may think you know what you are talking about, informed. Mike Shakelford is one of the foremost experts in system study and evaluation. He is hired by THE CASINOS to research and verify the statistical probabilities of games of chance. Below is his website. Anyone interested in the spouting of Mr. ION please go to it and inspect it. I have also posted Mike's challenge. What do you say ION? Get your backers to pitch in the $1,000 like you wanted to play against me. Defeat the Wizard, get your money back, and get world wide acclaim. In 2 posts I have given you the road to 1) put the casinos out of business and 2) make you the superstar of mathematical certainty. And imagine the adulation you will receive for offering "dozens" of gambling systems for $50. You are certain to be a candidate for sainthood. All you need do is have the wizard of odds say you are the man. Stay tuned folks. Lets watch an ION wiggle out. You bit off more than you can chew with your challenge son. That's what amatuers do. Enjoy the info. below.Chip

: : www.wizardofodds.com.
: : The Wizard of Odds Challenge
: : Despite all the evidence I have supplied I continue to get challenges via e-mail from people who believe their system is the exception to the rule and really does work. In mathematics rules do not have exceptions, if they did they wouldn't be a rule in the first place. Those with these claims always ask that I write a simulation program to prove their claim. I am not about to write free programs to every Tom, Dick, and Harry with a betting system. If you still are a true believer then pay me $1000 and I will write an honest program to test any reasonable betting system. In the event that your system does show a profit over millions of bets not only will I refund your money but I will publicly proclaim on my main page I was wrong and give you full credit for disproving every respectable book on probability ever written.


Boy this gets easier and easier. First thank you all for all of your e mails. I am truly humbled. Seems old ION isn't quite the hot shot he thinks.
So let's set him up! You will not see me refer to powerplay as a "system" as you refer to yours.
I encourage all reading this to go to www.wizardofodds.com and reiterate Senior ION's tripe above. NONSENSE is preciously what your comments are. Mike Shakleford will eat you up and spit you out. Please folks, contact him and pressure ION the magnificent to submit the $1,000 for the challenge. He sure wiggled good didn't he.

Let's go to another part of Mike's site. Here is a question and his reply:
Q: Your analysis of various side bets like Streak, Pair Square and others was very interesting. Do you know how these new games get invented and established? Do the casinos employ guys like you to compute the probabilities? If so, are the games copyrighted in some way? Thanks. – Bob Pierce of Lake Charles, Louisiana

A: I could talk about this all day. Part of my income is derived from analyzing games such as these. The gaming authorities require such analysis before a game can be licensed to play. Usually these games are invented by an individual or are owned by a gaming company. After the game owner receives a license it must go through a 30-day trial period. If the trial period went well the owner can then apply for a permanent license. The entire process is very slow and it is difficult to get a casino to be the guinea pig for the trial period. Casinos are actually quite risk averse in their business decisions. Yes, the game owner will usually seek a copyright to protect others from stealing the idea. Click here to learn more about my consulting services.

Now let's see. I(r)ON(head)is name calling a mathematical genius who is paid for analyzing games of chance. But, he is afraid of a $50 snake oil salesman. But wait let's go another step, on Mike's site. Ok ION, read it and start your bs meter running:
If you don't believe me here is what the Encyclopedia Britannica says under the subject of gambling:

"A common gamblers' fallacy called 'the doctrine of the maturity of the chances' (or 'Monte Carlo fallacy') falsely assumes that each play in a game of chance is not independent of the others and that a series of outcomes of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other possibilities. A number of 'systems' have been invented by gamblers based largely on this fallacy; casino operators are happy to encourage the use of such systems and to exploit any gambler's neglect of the strict rules of probability and independent plays."

Ok now notice the word gambling system and how it is in quotes. Who uses that word to promote, what a bargain, $50 system(s)? BTW, I think you might have to go to my last reply under the challenge, and explain how you are not going to cause the game of roulette to shut down.
How about 1 more, just for laughs. In this corner ION Saliu. His opponent, originally from Germany, Albert Einstein. Yes that's right, old Al said it is impossible to ever beat a fair game of roulette in the long run. So who are you going to bet on ladies and gentleman. As for me, I'll take Einstein and lay the points.

Ion, your in over your head. You shoot off your mouth and anyone who is knowledgeable about gambling in any serious manner can see that you are indeed a fool. I have been around for years and I'm still here. Your big thing is "Chip's afraid to play me.." Each time you harp on that you make a bigger moron out of yourself than the last time. Get a hold of some scholarly work on the subject of gambling, like Thorp's The Mathematics of Gambling, or something by Peter Griffin. Research gambling strategies like the Kelly Criterion. Your shtick is played out and boring. Your an adolescent trying to rebel against authority. So as I close, I expect you'll have a retort and make a bigger fool out of yourself. My playing partner, Playbig 2000, has been falling down laughing at you from the start. He was a member of Ken Uston's card counting blackjack teams in the 80's. I guess you want to challenge (yawn) him too. If you do, give him some time. He needs to finish unpacking at his new house, bought with money won playing baccarat. Thank you Bally's on behalf of Playbig gambling strategy. He has been contemplating posting here too. Don't forget to send in your $50 folks!!

Set up complete,

Chip

A gamblers' fallacy: The doctrine of the maturity of chances.

Ion Saliu's note
But why does Wizard of Odds beg his website visitors to buy his 'winning' gambling systems?

Wizard of Odds demolishes all gambling systems…except for his own winning gambling systems!

Set the record straight on Chip, his real name, illegal behavior, and Powerplay roulette, baccarat - June 2004.

° According to Chip, the Power Play Roulette system sold for some $5,000. If so, then my Super Roulette Strategy must be worth at least $50,000! No exaggeration! But it's free, believe it or not! Read the Super Roulette Strategy page.

Read who exactly Chip is in this legal document filed by Edward F. Stancik, Special Commissioner Of Investigation for the New York City School District, August 8, 2001: Frank Accardi, SCI Case #2001-0279.

If the legal document was archived to an unknown location, or deleted, read a saved copy in PDF: Legal Letter Regarding The Fraudulent Activity of Frank Accardi, a.k.a. Chip (requires Adobe Reader version 5 or later).

Chip and Power play roulette, baccarat, casino gambling strategy.


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    A gamblers' fallacy: The doctrine of the maturity of chances.