Comments:
: : Winning Roulette: Mathematics, Theory of Probability, Fundamental Formula of Gambling. I do believe in the concept of sleeper roulette number showing up after a considerable number of spins, as in the case of your FFG. Going back to your fundamental formula of gambling, you said that 12-number roulette spin will only encounter MORE than 18 LOSING spins only in one 1000 spin-runs. But a check at the analysis at WWW.WIN-MAXX.COM roulette spins section yielded several incidents (more than 3, at least) of 18 or more SLEEPING dozen/column on July 1-7, 2000 Speilbank Hamburg casino, of 2232 roulette spins. I did respond to you and others on Mr. Oops' roulette message board. You are referring to the "probability of N consecutive successes": (p) to the power of N. In your case, the probability of getting 18 consecutive 12-number-bet is (12/36) multiplied by itself 18 times. The result is so small that most calculators show zero or an error. If you wanted the probability of 12/38 WITHIN 18 roulette spins, then you apply FFG. That is, at least once WITHIN 18 spins. You might want also the "probability of losing 18 times roulette numbers in a row". In this case, you consider the opposite of p, which is (1-p) = (1- 12/38) = 0.684. The power of 18 applied to .0.684 is 0.108%, or close to 1 in 1000 as calculated by FFG. It's still easier to lose 18 12-number roulette bets in a row than winning 18 consecutive 12-number bets! 10 million times easier! : I recommend you use my freeware FORMULA.EXE. It calculates FFG and also the binomial distribution formula (BDF). You can use BDF to calculate the probability of consecutive successes or consecutive losses. Here is an example applied to the even-money bets. Let's say you want to play "Red". The probability to win "Red" 10 consecutive times is: (18/38) to the power of 10 = 0.057% or 5.7 times in 10,000 spins. The reverse, losing "Red" 10 times in a row (10 losses in 10 spins) is: (20/38) to the power of 10 = 0.16% or 1.6 times in 1,000 roulette spins devised gambling systems based on FFG. I know, however, that roulette players and gamblers with mathematical inclination, or simply chess-like gamblers gambling systems other than mine. Noel, you said you encountered several roulette streaks longer than 18 for 12-number bets. If you place a bet that the 12-number roulette will win the very next spin, you will win in 999 out of 1000 SUCH cases. Let's say you lost the first time. You are soooo patient and wait for the next 18 roulette spins skip for the same 12-number bet. What if, this time roulette spin? Your chance to lose is very, very slim. The chance to lose 18 in a row is 0.1% (or 0.001, we said 1 in 1000). But, again, I am not recommending here a gambling system! It makes a lot more sense than playing what you call roulette "sleepers". You can see in the ROULETTE.EXE report that roulette numbers can "sleep" over 200 roulette spins! Mathematics is not everything in gambling. I only remember at that time I committed myself to studying and mastering theory of probability. "I guess that idea is not even mathematically sound but I always think there is a 50/50 chance no matter how long a run lasts that it could continue just as much as it could end" Title: "Roulette advice, gambling systems should not be always free". Fundamental Formula of Gambling is a free probability and even gambling tool. But specific tips and gambling systems should be paid-for, including roulette. Casino gambling advice is not free lunch!